Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 5.002613 5.950871 7.004306 8.257706 9.704537 11.318243 13.250207
2025-06-08 3.785379 5.045875 6.586237 8.591693 11.116470 14.170956 18.125078
2025-06-15 2.916849 4.289509 6.108677 8.661449 12.110466 16.562515 22.689264
2025-06-22 2.192337 3.528094 5.433311 8.290925 12.397062 18.000089 26.119264
2025-06-29 1.766659 3.080511 5.079596 8.255765 13.065180 19.940751 30.338928
2025-07-06 1.445583 2.716308 4.768468 8.204026 13.656067 21.777888 34.528409
2025-07-13 1.299389 2.603490 4.818992 8.694400 15.088272 24.940032 40.882956
2025-07-20 1.140646 2.433843 4.741606 8.952040 16.159782 27.623531 46.707649
2025-07-27 1.032363 2.333991 4.763322 9.367041 17.511832 30.834555 53.571421
2025-08-03 0.886516 2.130349 4.563215 9.358243 18.132433 32.899600 58.741341
2025-08-10 0.729268 1.869377 4.211715 9.020148 18.128805 33.910152 62.235465
2025-08-17 0.603475 1.648781 3.902095 8.713532 18.135051 34.914358 65.759327
2025-08-24 0.521456 1.513725 3.751751 8.709101 18.717906 36.998544 71.342288
2025-08-31 0.456527 1.405818 3.642482 8.773478 19.437326 39.381722 77.620522
2025-09-07 0.394631 1.290871 3.498128 8.742936 19.962146 41.442784 83.457978
2025-09-14 0.320319 1.122631 3.200009 8.334378 19.674174 41.953160 86.493219
2025-09-21 0.276955 1.031256 3.071170 8.286546 20.123535 43.892832 92.295036
2025-09-28 0.239523 0.947551 2.946622 8.230162 20.544189 45.799129 98.145372
2025-10-05 0.229318 0.948671 3.044819 8.720211 22.203073 50.277409 109.208420
2025-10-12 0.210782 0.917051 3.048972 8.977897 23.363673 53.820757 118.644713
2025-10-19 0.199333 0.907382 3.112935 9.393716 24.918925 58.270781 130.118373
2025-10-26 0.175598 0.845992 3.017492 9.384812 25.486598 60.697707 137.672750
2025-11-02 0.146059 0.752474 2.808662 9.045841 25.237620 61.373618 141.703768